Is El Niño a phenomenon or an event? That was the question that brought together experts from the Panama Canal, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), and Panama’s Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMHPA) on Thursday to examine the effects of this climate variability on Panama and the region.
The Panama Canal’s Roberto F. Chiari Library was the site of the discussion, “Event or Phenomenon: The Impact of El Niño in Panama,” which provided a forum for experts to examine the causes, effects, and challenges associated with El Niño and its impact on the country.
“El Niño represents one of the greatest challenges for water management. It’s a resource that not only makes Panama Canal operations possible but also ensures the supply of drinking water for millions of Panamanians. In response to this reality, our decisions are grounded in decades of hydrological data, scientific knowledge, and lessons learned, further strengthened through collaboration with institutions such as the Smithsonian and IMHPA,” said Luis Rovira, Vice President for Water Resources Management, at the opening of the event.’
“By combining science, research, and operational experience, we have developed a better understanding of our watershed and the effects of climate variability. This enables us to anticipate changing conditions and make informed, timely, and responsible decisions to protect the country’s water security while maintaining the reliable service the canal provides to Panama and global maritime trade,” Rovira added.
Steve Paton, STRI’s Director of Physical Monitoring, described El Niño as contributing to an “unusual year,” in which the dry season experienced exceptionally high rainfall while the rainy season faces a precipitation deficit. “It is a year marked by uncertainty, due to a particularly intense El Niño that continues to strengthen,” he said.
Luz Graciela de Calzadilla, Director of IMHPA, warned that forecasts point to a very strong El Niño event that could initiate the start of the dry season in the second half of November. She explained that its effects could be felt across key sectors, including agriculture, power generation, public health, and the supply of drinking water.
November is a critical month for the Panama Canal and for more than half of Panama’s population. Historically, it is the wettest month of the year in the Panama Canal Watershed, and provides sufficient rainfall needed to replenish the lakes that support canal’s operations and ensure drinking water supplies for more than half of the country during the dry season.
Gloria Arrocha and Ayax Murillo, members of the Panama Canal’s Water Resources Management team, explained the continuous monitoring and analysis conducted to assess climate conditions and lake levels. The information is critical input for decision-making and for implementing the canal’s water and operational strategies, enabling it to respond promptly to adverse climate scenarios.
The Panama Canal continues to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño and its potential effects on the watershed’s water resources. As part of the measures implemented since late 2025, the canal has introduced initiatives that optimize the use of water in its operations.
These efforts were subsequently complemented by adjustments based on technical assessments and updated lake-level projections. Measures have included draft adjustments and, more recently, a reduction in the number of daily transits for only the second time in the history of the interoceanic waterway.
